Metalmark Warns: As a 'Super El Niño' Approaches, Most Buildings Lack Systems to Protect Occupants from Wildfire Smoke

New ASHRAE Guideline 44 Highlights a Critical Gap Between Monitoring, Planning, and Real-World Operational Capability

CAMBRIDGE, MA, UNITED STATES, June 4, 2026 /EINPresswire.com/ -- As climate scientists and federal forecasters warn of a developing El Niño pattern, Metalmark, a leading innovator in environmental health systems and air intelligence, is urging building owners, facility managers, healthcare operators, and employers to prepare for wildfire smoke. As smoke becomes a recurring seasonal risk rather than an isolated event, the question is no longer whether buildings will be affected, but whether they have the systems in place to respond effectively
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NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center currently places a 61% probability on El Niño conditions emerging between May and July 2026 and persisting through at least year’s end,[1] with European climate models indicating the potential for one of the strongest El Niño events in modern recorded history.[2]

The stakes are not abstract. El Niño events have historically driven warmer, drier conditions across the western United States, accelerating vegetation drying and priming the landscape for catastrophic wildfires. Washington state has already declared a statewide drought emergency for the fourth consecutive year, with snowpack at roughly half of normal levels and melting ahead of schedule.[3] More than 56% of the U.S. is currently under drought conditions,[4] and wildfire ignitions this spring have run at nearly double the historical daily average for this period.[5]

With a potentially historic El Niño still building in the Pacific, conditions for a severe smoke season are aligning in ways that demand proactive preparation, not reactive scrambling, especially since wildfire is no longer an episodic nuisance but a recurring operational risk.

This shift is reflected in recent guidance from standards bodies and federal agencies. In December 2024, ASHRAE, the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers released Guideline 44-2024: Protecting Building Occupants from Smoke During Wildfire and Prescribed Burn Events, a comprehensive framework addressing building design, ventilation operation, and indoor air quality management during smoke events.[6]
The guideline recommends that commercial buildings, healthcare facilities, schools, and multi-unit residential buildings develop facility-specific Smoke Readiness Plans, install PM2.5 sensors both indoors and outdoors for real-time monitoring, seal building envelope leaks that allow smoke infiltration, and implement MERV-13 or higher-rated filters within HVAC systems.

The EPA followed in May 2025 with its own “Best Practices Guide for Improving Indoor Air Quality in Commercial/Public Buildings During Wildland Fire Smoke Events.”[7] Taken together, these resources signal that regulators and standards bodies are treating wildfire smoke as a systemic, foreseeable operational risk, not an exceptional act of nature. However, while these guidelines define what smoke preparedness requires, most facilities lack the ability to operationalize them.

In practice, filtration upgrades are often the primary response, yet this approach is frequently insufficient. Metalmark’s research identifies a critical gap that filtration upgrades alone may not close. Wildfire smoke particles are predominantly submicron, typically 0.1 to 0.3 microns in size (that is roughly 300 times smaller than the diameter of a human hair) and behave differently from the particles used by standard tests.[8] Wildfire smoke exposure can rapidly reduce filtration efficiency of many filters in a matter of hours, raising concern that filters may lose effectiveness precisely when protection is most critical.[8] Without continuous measurement, adaptive response, and verification, filtration alone cannot ensure effective protection during smoke events.[8]

“ASHRAE Guideline 44 is a meaningful step forward,” said Sissi Liu, CEO and co-founder of Metalmark. “But most buildings lack the ability to measure conditions continuously, decide what to do, and confirm whether it worked. What’s needed is an operational system that connects monitoring, decisions, and outcomes.”

With this in mind, Metalmark reframes wildfire smoke as an operational risk that must be actively managed, not passively monitored. The company’s system begins with the Metalmark Assessment and extends into an operating platform that translates ASHRAE Guideline 44 into building-specific operational logic. The platform:
• Tracks indoor conditions over time
• Establishes site-specific baselines and exposure gaps
• Identifies vulnerable spaces and changing risk patterns
• Supports action planning with recommended next steps
• Verifies whether actions improved indoor conditions
• Documents findings for leadership, ESG, resilience, or stakeholder communication

For organizations using ASHRAE Guideline 44 as a reference point, Metalmark can help make smoke readiness more measurable by connecting indoor conditions, decision support, and outcome verification. The result is not just visibility, but the ability to reduce exposure, maintain operational continuity, and manage risk under operating conditions, while enabling teams to balance air quality, energy use, and system performance.

That is where environmental intelligence becomes operationally important. Environmental responsibility is no longer only about reducing what organizations emit. It is also about how they protect people from environmental conditions that are already here. As wildfire smoke becomes a predictable seasonal feature of the climate system, buildings are increasingly the front line of protection. The challenge is no longer only reducing environmental impact, but managing exposure inside buildings.

The company’s public benefit corporation structure reflects its foundational conviction that protecting human health is not a product feature, but an obligation. As wildfire smoke becomes an annual, multi-month reality for tens of millions of Americans, and as El Niño conditions threaten to make the 2026 season one of the most hazardous in recent memory, Metalmark is urging organizations to act now. The time to develop a Smoke Readiness Plan, baseline indoor environmental quality, and address filtration vulnerabilities lies before fires ignite, not after the fact.

The implications are particularly acute in healthcare settings, where facilities must remain operational when air quality deteriorates and protect vulnerable patients, making environmental exposure a clinical and operational priority.

“We are entering a period where wildfire smoke is not a regional risk or a worst-case scenario. It is a predictable seasonal condition,” Liu added. “The facilities that will successfully protect their people and maintain operations are the ones that move to operational readiness before the smoke arrives.”
For more information about the Metalmark Assessment or to request a consultation, visit metalmark.xyz or contact sales@metalmark.xyz.

About Metalmark
Metalmark develops environmental health systems that help organizations measure, manage, and reduce exposure in real time. First inspired by nanostructures found in the wings of the metalmark butterfly, the company combines sensing, analytics, mitigation, and advanced materials to address growing environmental risks inside buildings. For more information, visit https://metalmark.xyz

1. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (April 2026): ENSO-neutral conditions present; El Niño likely to emerge May–July 2026 (61% chance), persisting through at least end of 2026. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
2. Axios Seattle / Portland (April 14, 2026): European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) models show ocean temperatures rising steadily toward El Niño conditions; atmospheric scientist Paul Roundy cited “real potential for the strongest El Niño event in 140 years.” https://www.axios.com/local/seattle/2026/04/14/washington-drought-el-nino-wildfire-season-ecmwf-noaa
3. Washington State Department of Ecology, Statewide Drought Emergency Declaration (April 8, 2026): Fourth consecutive statewide drought declaration; snowpack at approximately 52% of normal; all watersheds below 75% threshold. https://ecology.wa.gov/about-us/who-we-are/news/2026/april-8-statewide-drought-declared-due-to-dismal-snowpack
4. National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook (April 2026): Overall drought increased across the country with over 56% of the U.S. in drought. https://www.nifc.gov/nicc-files/predictive/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf
5. Deseret News / National Interagency Fire Center data (April 4, 2026): As of early April 2026, 1.6 million acres had burned nationwide — 231% above the 10-year average — with wildfire activity running 168% above average for the period. https://www.deseret.com/environment/2026/04/04/nifc-data-wildfires-the-west-utah-summer-2026/
6. ASHRAE, Guideline 44-2024: Protecting Building Occupants from Smoke During Wildfire and Prescribed Burn Events (released December 2024). https://www.ashrae.org/about/news/2024/ashrae-releases-new-guidance-to-mitigate-the-impact-of-smoke-on-indoor-air-quality
7. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Best Practices Guide for Improving Indoor Air Quality in Commercial/Public Buildings During Wildland Fire Smoke Events (May 2025). https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_Report.cfm?dirEntryId=365813&Lab=CPHEA
8a. Pothier, M.A. et al., “Wildfire Smoke Particle Size and Filter Performance,” Atmosphere, Vol. 14, Issue 12 (2023): Characterization of wildfire smoke particle size distribution and impact on HVAC filter efficiency. https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/14/12/1729
8b. Lal, R. et al., “Wildfire Smoke Exposure and Indoor Air Quality in Buildings,” Urban Science, Vol. 10, Issue 2 (2026): Analysis of submicron wildfire smoke infiltration and degradation of filtration effectiveness under prolonged smoke exposure conditions. https://www.mdpi.com/2413-8851/10/2/99

Stacia Kirby
Kirby Communications
stacia@kirbycomm.com
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